In observing each category included in the NCPI individually, we can known the locations in which this indicator reached its highest value in May, as well as the value accrued in said city during the past twelve months and the nationwide average corresponding to each category. This can be observed in chart number 1.

 

 

Metropolitan Area CPI
In May the Consumer Price Index for the Metropolitan Area (CPI) shrank 3 percentile points in comparison to the index reflected in April and closed at 2.2%. At this rate, it has accrued 31.8% during May 2009 / May 2010.

Alcoholic beverages and tobacco represents the category that accrued the highest CPI for the month in question, at 4.2% or an accrued for 2010 of 18.8% and 51.3% during May 2009 / May 2010. Within this item, the subcategory of alcoholic beverages has accrued 43.3% during the same period. Tobacco accrued 64.7%. 

In May, foodstuffs and non-alcoholic beverages dropped 10.2 percentile points and closed the month at 2.3%, thereby accruing 44% for the past twelve months. The foodstuffs subcategory returned to levels close to 2.3%, after the 13% registered the previous month, thus accruing 44.2% for the mobile year measurement for May.

 

 

 

Inflationary core, Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI)

The Inflationary core (IC) continued to maintain a stable behavior in comparison to the previous month. The variation reflected was 2.6%, thereby accruing 12.9% for the first five months of the year, being 2.7 percentile points lower than the accrued figure during the same period in 2009. The measurement for the mobile year May 2009 / May 2010 gave us an accrued value of 31.6%, this also being 2.6 percentile points lower compared to the annualized value as of May 2009.

The category of processed foodstuffs dropped by -1.3 percentile points with respect to April. It therefore closed at 3.8% and has accrued 17.1% during this year. We must remember that this indicator sets aside food products that are under government-enforced price regulations, which explains the differential which may exist with respect to the CPI, the measurement of which for 2010 in the foodstuffs category has reached 23.3%, as a result of the price adjustments made on price-controlled goods which are part of the foodstuff basket.

Textiles and clothing exhibited an upwards variation of 0.5 percentile points with respect to April, and reached 2.1%, in this manner accruing 6.7% during this year and 20.7% in the past twelve months. Non-energy related industrial goods increased 0.5 percentile points and reached 2.5%, for an annualized measurement of 31.4%.

With respect to Services it dropped -0.1 percentile points and closed at 2.3% after the 2.4% present in April. In this manner, it has reached 13.1% in the months which have elapsed in 2010 and 29.3% during the period of May 2009 / May 2010.

 

 

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) dropped to 3.6% after reflecting 5.6% in April, thereby accruing 14.8% in 2010 and 32.7% for its annualized measurement. This drop in the general indicator was spearheaded by the drop in all its components in May. The drop in the national component was 2.1 percentile points, closing May at 3.9%. In spite of the foregoing, the annualized accrued figure increased to 33.7% after having been at 28.9% in April. The variation in the imported component was also downwards and reached 2.7% after the 3.8% reflected in the previous month. In turn, construction items measured by this indicator showed a reduction of 1.6 percentile points and reached 0.9% during the same period.
 
Regarding the Producer Price Index (PPI), the variations in the categories included in it also tended downwards. The Private Manufacturing Industry dropped by 1.2 percentile points and reached 2.1% as of the end of May, thus accruing 29.8% for the mobile year as of May 2010. Construction materials in the PPI dropped 0.3 percentile points, reaching 1.6% and in this manner accruing 25.4% in the past twelve months elapsed. The behavior of the four principal indicators from January 2002 to May 2010 can be observed in chart number 3.

 

THE FOREIGN SECTOR
International Reserves (IR)
As of May 28, total international reserves had reached US$ 27,506 million, US$ 26,675 million of which were at the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) and US$ 831 million placed in the Macroeconomic Stabilization Fund (FEM).

The differential present during the period from 04/30/10 to 05/28/10 is US$ 809 million, US$ 500 million of which correspond to transfers to the Fonden on May 25, 2010. The remaining US$ 309 million correspond to foreign currency inputs and outputs on said item during the period stated.

 

At these amounts, the International Reserves (IR) are US$ 3,345 million below the level of US$ 31 billion, considered to be the optimum level according to the institutions in charge of regulating our nation’s monetary policies. This level once again has not been attained since February of this year.

 

Ven-U.S. Trade Exchange
As of April the trade exchange between Venezuela and the United States was characterized for reaching total exports in the amount of US$ 2,653 million, reflecting  51.99% increase with respect to the same month last year and translating into US$ 907 million more than transacted in that period. Nevertheless, it implied a -16.14% drop with respect to March of this year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 The total exported in April is divided into 97.85% oil-related goods (US$ 2,596 million) and the remaining 2.15% non-oil related goods (US$ 57 million).

 

In this manner, the measurement for the period of January – April 2010 total exports in the amount of US$ 10,745 million, 43.9% more than that accrued during the first four months of 2009. This is translated into an increase of US$ 3,280 million in revenues generated due to exports towards the United States.
 

Imports in April closed at US$ 896 million, thus registering a 15.36% increase (see chart 5) with respect to imports in April 2009. This behavior implies an increase of US$ 119 million in payments for imports coming from the United States, -1.71% less than payments during March of this year.

As of April, imports were made up by 13.68% oil-related goods (US$ 123 million) and 86.32% non-oil-related goods (US$ 774 million).

 

 

Thus, in the first four-month quarter analyzed this year, imports from the United States totaled US$ 3,075 million, -9.44% less than those registered for the same period last year, or US$ 320 million below the amounts transacted for this concept during the same months in 2009.

 

 

 

 

ACTIVITY INDICATORS
Sales of Vehicles

So far in May of this year, the figures by Cavenez, the Automotive Chamber of Venezuela, had shown a negative trend in the market behavior regarding total sales. However, the trend is reverting and is showing positive figures in total sales indicators for the first time this year: 10,397 total units sold during May 2010, thereby increasing by 2.7% the figures with respect to May 2009 when it had reached 10,127 units sold.

Likewise, the total accrued amount (Jan - May 2010) shows a total of 48’888 units sold, 30.8% less than the accrued total for Jan – May 2009, of which domestic production was 44’422 (90.86%) units produced or a 13.80% drop compared to the same accrued period (Jan – April) in 2009; the total amount of imported vehicles sold dropped by 76.60% and went from 19’107 units in January – May 2009 to 4’465 during Jan – May of this year. Regarding units exported, the indicator continues to reflect 0% in Jan – May 2010.

The comparison of April 2010 to May 2010 shows a 2.90% drop in total sales of new vehicles, going from 10’707 units during April 2010 to 10’397 during May 2010.

Electric Power

 

Based on sources by Opsis, the Operations Office for Interconnected Systems of Venezuela, the installed capacity of the national electric system reached 23’968.50 MW in April 2010, 2.66% more than that accrued during the first four months of 2009. However, the net energy generated that same month was 9’111.10 MW, which represents a 4.23% drop compared to the accrued value for the first four months in 2009.

The energy consumed in April 2010 was 9’078.20 MW and the maximum required demand for that same month reached 15’681 MW.

 

THE MONETARY SECTOR

According to the Central Bank of Venezuela, as of May 28, 2010 the monetary liquidity (M2) had reached BsF. 240’004 million which, if compared to April 2009, implies a nominal raise of 19.14%. 

With respect to the composition of the liquidity corresponding to May 2010 it was observed that 69.48% corresponds to money (14.26% coins and bills and 85.74% sight deposits) and the remaining 30.52% in savings accounts, deposits and/or any other financial asset that substitutes money as a means of payment.

Interest Rates
Based on the average of the nominal rates from the six principal commercial and universal banks as reported by the BCV for May 2010, savings deposits continue at 12.60% but term deposits increased to 14.87% and active operations 17.93%. The spread between the active and passive rates for that month was 1.21.
The agricultural rate remains at 13% since August 2008.

 

SOCIAL INDICATORS

Employment and Unemployment

Based on figures by INE, the National Statistics Institute, as of April 2010, the total estimated population was 28’537’762 inhabitants, 1.59% more with respect to April 2009, when it was estimated at 28’090’389 inhabitants.

The economically active population for April 2010 included 13’062’774 inhabitants, which represents 64.8% of the population 15 years and older.

The unemployed labor force represented 8.2% of the economically active population, for a total of 1’072’612 persons, or a 7.30% increase with respect to April 2009, when the number of unemployed people was 999’634.

In turn, the severance rate reached 7.4%, whereas the number of persons seeking a job for the first time increased 8.60% and went from 93’069 persons in April 2009 to 101’818 persons in April 2010.